Economic Cost of Catalan Independence; HUGE.

At 9th of November, nearly 2 million Catalans voted for Independence. But this referandum is not an official, this is just `symbolic` referandum which will give huge messages to Spanish government and Europe. In this article, I will try to investigate two question in economical way; `Which economical problems force Catalans for Independence? What is the disadvantages of Independence for Catalonia?`and `How Independent Catalonia can affect Spanish?`



First of all, If you think that Spanish people and Catalan people are the same, you are so wrong. (I suggest you not to say it in front of Catalans also) Catalans have their own culture, language, politic, food, flag etc. Shortly, they are completely different nation. Moreover, nowadays Catalans' voice for independence is more stronger than before. However, why Catalans want their independence? Despite the fact that, political and cultural problems are bigger, there is also economical side of the situation. What are they?

Firstly, they believe that Spain's Economy is managing poorly. Since 2008, there is a recession and crisis in Europe and Spain. Separatists believe that they might manage Catalan economy better without Spain. Of course, it is just an estimation. However, are estimations enough for Independence? If you have strong arguments, yes.

Secondly, There are 7.5 million Catalans in the region and Catalonia is the 4th wealthiest region in Spain with $34.417 GDP per capita and 1st in GDP with $258 billion. So according to statistics, as a population Catalonia has population more than Denmark, Finland and Sweden. When we look at the GDP per capita, they are richer than Greece, Portugal and Cyprus. Therefore, statistics are against Madrid.

Catalan Protests

Lastly, Catalans believe that `Spain is robbing us`.  This is basically, they don't think their tax payments return them as a service. What is more, Separatist opinion is simple; when they got their independence, Catalonia can develop more easily because they don't have to pay the bill of Spain anymore.

However, there is also another side. When Catalonia got independent, will they be in EU? Probably, few years no. How it will affect the economy of Catalonia? What is more to the point is What will happen to their trade relations with Spain? Nobody knows.

How Independent Catalonia can affect Spanish Economy?

Economic crisis hit the Europe and Spain is one of the most affected country from the crisis. Like it was not enough, another hit to Spain by  Catalan secession demand. So, what will be the cost for Madrid if Catalans got what they want? Catalonia it is the heart of Spain in terms of Industrial Goods and Trade.Simply, if Catalonia got independence, Spain will lose %20 of it's economy and %14 of export revenues. Perhaps, this is the last thing Spain wants right now. 

Moreover, Barcelona is one of the most touristic destination in Spain and Barcelona FC is one of the successful football club in Spain and in the world as economically and has fans from all over the world. In this case, Spain will lose big trademark and football business market. La Liga is known as second most popular league in the world after English Premier League. Mostly, the popularity came because of the great rivalry between Real Madrid and Barcelona. If no Barcelona, La Liga's market share in Football Industry will fall for sure. ( Despite the fact that, Spanish Football Federation announced that probable secession of Catalonia can cause Barcelona to not to play in La Liga anymore, Barcelona FC supports independence.)

Conclusion

All in all, Catalonia made the `symbolic` elections and gave message to Spanish government. Catalans have strong arguments whereas Madrid doesn't want Catalonia secession. I strongly believe that, in short-term independent Catalonia can cause a lot of problem to Spain and Europe economically, yet Europe can minimize the cost after Catalonia enters the EU. Furthermore, Spain has to rebuild it's economy and budget after the huge lost.

On the other hand, Independent Catalonia will suffer in short term because of tariffs and recessions. In long term, they can build new economy and their biggest advantage is they have `bad example` as Spain. I'm not politician but I believe that now it can be `symbolic` referandum but in long term, if Spanish government can not recover the Economy and turn back to beginning of 2000's as socially and politically, Catalonia and Spain will be two different countries.